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When ‘Tax-Efficient’ isn’t Cost-Efficient…

‘In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.’ – Benjamin Franklin One of the biggest differentiators of long-term investment performance is cost-drag. If you’d invested $1m into the S&P 500 twenty years ago at a total cost drag of 1% p.a., your investment would be worth over $5.5m today. […]

‘Gradually, then suddenly.’

The biggest story of the 1st quarter was the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the ensuing regional banking crisis in the US. It took just two days for SVB to collapse after the announcement that they needed to raise capital. Depositors lost confidence in the bank, triggering a run on deposits and cementing […]

Diversification is No Free Lunch

“There’s no such thing as a free lunch.” This well-known adage, popularized in economics by Nobel laureate Milton Friedman, communicates the idea that you never get something for nothing. The saying finds its origin in a former practice of American public houses, which would offer a ‘free lunch’ in order to attract clientele. These customers […]

Dollar Relativity

It’s been a tough year for stock market investors. The MSCI World Index has returned -25.6% in 2022 (measured in USD), on track for its worst year since 2008 and its 2nd worst year since the index started in 1970. ‘Measured in USD’ is an important consideration though – more so than usual – as […]

Effect and Cause

The MSCI World index lost 15.7% in the second quarter The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has continued to put pressure on global supply chains and commodity prices. US inflation increased to 8.6%, while the Federal Reserve rate increased from 0.5% to 1.75%. Consensus estimates are for a further 75bps increase at the end of July. […]

Mind the Gap

In 2021 we worked through a total of 1 927 companies across the globe. These are largely representative of the global opportunity set and include just about every major listed company in the world. These 1 927 companies have a combined market cap of $78 trillion. For each company, we estimated an expected return, which […]

Overconfidence

The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person’s subjective confidence in his or her judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high. Overconfidence is one example of a miscalibration of subjective probabilities. Throughout the research literature, overconfidence has been defined in three distinct […]

Country Risk

When managing a global portfolio it’s important to have a handle on the risks inherent in the places we’re investing our funds. The approach most investors take is similar to the approach with which they assess individual stocks: Do I recognize the name and how does it make me feel? This really isn’t adequate, especially […]