David’s role encompasses the research, development and implementation of Bellwood Capital’s equity investment strategies, proprietary models and systems.
In the last two quarters we’ve examined the growing divergence between US Megacaps (S&P 500) and everything else. We concluded that this divergence was driven by non-sustainable sources of return and began to discuss the potential sources of divergence. While it’s tempting to point to the recent AI hype, this trend goes back a lot […]
Last quarter we discussed the divergent performances between the US stock market, emerging markets and other developed markets. In particular, we noted how the gap between the US and emerging markets is now at its widest since 1988, per the below graph. Importantly, we also noted how this gap has inverted several times in the […]
Recent years have seen global markets split more or less into a 3-horse race. In first place, you have the US – ‘the good.’ The S&P 500 has returned 38% in the last 3 years. In distant second place, you have the rest of the developed markets – ‘the bad.’ The SPDR Developed World (ex-US) […]
Legendary investor Charlie Munger, famed for his role at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway alongside Warren Buffet, died at the age of 99 on 28 November 2023. He would’ve been 100 years old on New Year’s day. The stock market experienced 5 major crashes during his lifetime, the Great Depression being by far the worst, […]
When you think of government bonds and their role in your investment portfolio, you typically think of stability. You invest in the stock market for high returns, but the bond market for stability. Bonds are there to ‘reduce the risk’ of your investment portfolio, and for that many are willing to accept lower returns. This […]
‘In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.’ – Benjamin Franklin One of the biggest differentiators of long-term investment performance is cost-drag. If you’d invested $1m into the S&P 500 twenty years ago at a total cost drag of 1% p.a., your investment would be worth over $5.5m today. […]
The biggest story of the 1st quarter was the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the ensuing regional banking crisis in the US. It took just two days for SVB to collapse after the announcement that they needed to raise capital. Depositors lost confidence in the bank, triggering a run on deposits and cementing […]
“There’s no such thing as a free lunch.” This well-known adage, popularized in economics by Nobel laureate Milton Friedman, communicates the idea that you never get something for nothing. The saying finds its origin in a former practice of American public houses, which would offer a ‘free lunch’ in order to attract clientele. These customers […]
It’s been a tough year for stock market investors. The MSCI World Index has returned -25.6% in 2022 (measured in USD), on track for its worst year since 2008 and its 2nd worst year since the index started in 1970. ‘Measured in USD’ is an important consideration though – more so than usual – as […]
The MSCI World index lost 15.7% in the second quarter The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has continued to put pressure on global supply chains and commodity prices. US inflation increased to 8.6%, while the Federal Reserve rate increased from 0.5% to 1.75%. Consensus estimates are for a further 75bps increase at the end of July. […]