David’s role encompasses the research, development and implementation of Bellwood Capital’s equity investment strategies, proprietary models and systems.
In the early 2000s, after the dotcom-bubble popped, there was much talk about a commodity ‘supercycle’. China had just entered the WTO and embarked upon a fiscal policy of massive industrialization. This led to shortages in several key commodities from iron ore and copper to oil and gas, which were further compounded as countries began […]
One of the casualties of recent breakthroughs in agentic AI has been software stocks. The Morgan Stanley Software as a Service (SaaS) basket dropped 30% in the first quarter. It’s been dubbed ‘SaaSpocalypse’ by market commentators. The thesis is that agentic AI will fundamentally disrupt the SaaS business model and even replace the need for […]
In 2024, we wrote an article entitled The Good, the Bad and the Emerging Markets in which we discussed the recent divergence between America, other developed markets and emerging markets. In the 3 years prior, the S&P 500 had returned 38%, developed markets 11% and emerging markets negative 17% – a massive spread of 55 […]
One of the standout performers in 2025 has been gold, up 45% year-to-date (YTD) to record highs. Even better than gold have been gold mining stocks: The 8 biggest gold miners in the world have returned on average ~130% YTD. While precious metals mining represents less than 1% of the global stock market (an insignificant […]
Artificial intelligence is fast becoming the most significant technological development since the advent of the internet. Recent breakthroughs have brought AI out of obscurity and into the everyday lives of ordinary people everywhere. As with any such development, there are pros and cons. There are those who embrace this new reality, those who feel threatened […]
The MSCI AC World index declined 1.3% in USD in the 1st quarter of 2025, while the Rand strengthened 2.8% against the Dollar. Our own portfolios gained in the 1st quarter as the gap between US Megacaps and other international markets narrowed slightly. The real news however is what took place in the 1st week […]
In his latest memo ‘On Bubble Watch’, renowned investor Howard Marks discussed the phenomenon known as the ‘Magnificent Seven’ (hereafter M7) – Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Meta (Facebook), Nvidia, and Tesla – the popular US tech giants which have driven much of the S&P500’s performance in recent years. It’s well worth the read. I’ll […]
In the last two quarters we’ve examined the growing divergence between US Megacaps (S&P 500) and everything else. We concluded that this divergence was driven by non-sustainable sources of return and began to discuss the potential sources of divergence. While it’s tempting to point to the recent AI hype, this trend goes back a lot […]
Last quarter we discussed the divergent performances between the US stock market, emerging markets and other developed markets. In particular, we noted how the gap between the US and emerging markets is now at its widest since 1988, per the below graph. Importantly, we also noted how this gap has inverted several times in the […]
Recent years have seen global markets split more or less into a 3-horse race. In first place, you have the US – ‘the good.’ The S&P 500 has returned 38% in the last 3 years. In distant second place, you have the rest of the developed markets – ‘the bad.’ The SPDR Developed World (ex-US) […]